Understanding the Problem
Over the past century, our society has become increasingly dependent on fossil fuels. Every aspect of our life is supported now by this source of cheap, reliable energy. Fossil fuels - primarily oil and natural gas - provide not only most of the energy needed to fuel our cars, freight transport and electrical power systems, but are also the primary raw material for fertilizers that grow most of our food, and plastics and polymers that are used to manufacture most of our material goods. We have in every way become dependent on this cheap, highly concentrated, and traditionally highly available source of energy. Our dependence has grown slowly - over decades - almost without us noticing it. Cheap energy has brought us wonders that our ancestors could not have dreamed of.
Today, as the US consumes 25% of the global oil supply, we are faced with growing evidence that the era of cheap oil is about to end. We are not running out of oil, but we will run out of inexpensive oil soon, some experts say as soon as 2007. This is because the oil producing nations will soon be unable to keep up with demand, which is increasing not only in the US but in large countries with expanding economies such as China and India. Global depletion in producing oil fields is now around 5% to 7% per year, while global demand is increasing at a rate of 2% per year [1]. Worldwide, more oil has been consumed than discovered annually, in every year since 1981. In 2005, only one barrel of oil was discovered for every 6.5 barrels consumed [2].
What does this mean for our way of life? It means that food and goods that travel great distances from their points of origin will become very expensive. It means that growing the food itself will become more expensive, because most of the energy in our food comes from fossil fuel-based fertilizers. It means that commuting to work will become too expensive for large numbers of people, not just because gasoline will cost more, but because cars will cost more to manufacture and repair, and roads will be more expensive to maintain. Since the price of oil is factored into everything we do and own, an increase in the basic price of oil has a multiplier effect in the price of virtually everything else.
People have differing opinions about when cheap oil will end. But there seems to be a growing public awareness that somehow, our country is on the wrong energy track. Our dependence on this remarkably cheap and abundant energy source has changed something basic about our relation to nature, some fundamental balance. What once was achieved with animal and human energy is now done with fossil energy. Communities and small towns across America that were once vital and self-sustaining, providing diverse occupations, and our cultural identity, have disappeared. Our increasing dependence on goods manufactured overseas and food grown in other hemispheres has made us vulnerable to a long chain of suppliers, transport systems, and governments. This is especially true in Massachusetts, where available farm land is now only 5% of that required to sustain our population, and most of the energy used to heat and power our homes is imported. The gradually increasing distances we must drive to go to work, educate our children, and buy life's necessities, has made us ever more dependent on the automobile and its traditionally cheap fuel. And our use of fossil fuels has initiated global climate change.
A study was completed for the US Department of Energy in February, 2005, called Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation, & Risk Management, by Robert L. Hirsch, SAIC, Project Leader; Roger Bezdek, MISI; and Robert Wendling, MISI. The study does not predict when world oil production will peak, but states the following:
The problems associated with world oil production peaking will not be temporary, and past "energy crisis" experience will provide relatively little guidance. The challenge of oil peaking deserves immediate, serious attention, if risks are to be fully understood and mitigation begun on a timely basis.
Peaking will result in dramatically higher oil prices, which will cause protracted economic hardship in the United States and the world. However, the problems are not insoluble. Timely, aggressive mitigation initiatives addressing both the supply and the demand sides of the issue will be required.
Mitigation will require a minimum of a decade of intense, expensive effort, because the scale of liquid fuels mitigation is inherently extremely large.
The Harvard Local group believes that we can achieve a significant oil demand reduction by starting to take some simple but immediate steps toward conservation. Much of our energy use is discretionary and can be easily reduced, such as turning off lights and computers when not in use, and driving less. Since energy has been cheap for so long, we have lost the conservation habits learned in the 70's. It is time to find them again. State and federal governments must address the supply problem, but local groups can find innovative ways to cut demand. In doing so we will build a healthier, secure, more self-sustaining community.